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Colombian Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016

The latest outlook presented in the quarterly publication “Situación Colombia”, indicates that the economy will grow 3.1% in 2015. However, the growth forecast for 2016 is 3.1%.

I. Growth Profile

The economic outlook noted that the growth pattern for the next year will continue to be supported by the increasing in public demand. On the contrary, there will be a smaller contribution of private demand and the trade with the region partners.

Regarding the foreign trade, the balance of payments is expected to present a deficit in the current account standing at 5.6% of GDP in 2015 and 4.7% of GDP in 2016. This otucome is the result of a lower deficit in the trade balance, the adjustment in the labor and capital factors’ defitcit and higher remittances.

In this scenario, it is expected that inflation will stand at 4.1% at the end of this year. In 2016, due to a weaker economic activity the inflation will be getting a lower level around 3.2% at the end of the year.

Finally, if we sum up the expected inflation trend and the current account deficit the possibility of reducing the interest rate of monetary policy is unlikely. A scenario where the interest rate remains unchanged at its current level of 4.5% in 2015 and 2016 is expected.

2017-09-18T13:27:50+00:00 14/09/2015|Latest news|