Brazil is this week's headline, without a doubt! Flávio Bolsonaro finished Brazil's first presidential round ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 47% of the vote against Lula's 45%. The October 25 runoff will decide the presidency of Latin America's largest economy. 

Business relations with global powers 

The result could also reshape Brazil's balancing act between China and the United States. A Bolsonaro victory would likely mean closer alignment with Washington, while Lula has favoured a more independent foreign policy and closer ties with China. 

China remains by far Brazil's largest export market: in 2025, Brazil exported more than 2.5 times as much to China as to the United States. That makes any geopolitical realignment complicated. A more US-aligned Bolsonaro administration would need to strengthen ties with Washington while protecting the Chinese demand critical to Brazil's export economy. 

Congress matters, too. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won 121 of 513 lower-house seats and is projected to hold 28 of 81 Senate seats. Neither is a majority, so Bolsonaro would still need alliances to advance his agenda, while a Lula victory would face a significantly more challenging Congress. 

October 25 will therefore be about more than who governs Brazil. It will help determine how Latin America's largest economy balances Washington and Beijing, and how much political room its next president has at home. Brazil's choice will not stop at its borders. It could help define the direction of Latin America's next political cycle.  

LATAM at a Glance 

• 10 borders: Brazil borders every South American country except Chile and Ecuador. 

• One language, continental scale: Brazil is the only Portuguese-speaking country in South America. 

• Around one-third: Brazil produces roughly a third of the world's coffee. 

• About 60%: The share of the Amazon rainforest located in Brazil. 

• Five World Cups: The only men's national team with five titles. 

• The world's best cocktail? Brazil gave the caipirinha, made with its signature sugarcane spirit, cachaça. 

Preparing internal processes for any change in government is essential to anticipate potential tax reforms. Auxadi has a local office in São Paulo to support the market entry and exit of multinational groups in Brazil. Contact our experts through the form to discuss your expectations for the Brazilian market.

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